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It almost has become accepted as inevitable. Since 2003, the season after the NFL last realigned, at least one team has made the jump from worst to first in its division each year. It’s a preseason tradition for prognosticators to pick out which squads will continue the trend and make the rags-to-riches leap.
With a quick glance at the eight last-place finishers from last year, however, I discovered that there won’t be another link added to the chain. This season the annual feel-good story is taking a year off.
While 2007’s last-place teams have made strides in some areas — probably enough to give themselves a shot at moving up a notch or two — none of them is going to finish first in ’08. In fact, many, if not all, of them could very well end up in the same exact slot.
Below is an analysis of last year’s bottom feeders and why they’ll come up short in their bid for a reversal of fortune.
Dolphins
There are a myriad of reasons why the Dolphins will be unable to turn things around in a flash, but the biggest roadblock they face is sharing a division with the Patriots. That unfortunate duty eliminates them from worst-to-first consideration as they begin the rebuilding process under first-time head coach Tony Sparano. Having to choose a starting quarterback from a group consisting of Josh McCown, John Beck and rookie Chad Henne isn’t exactly a sign of good things to come in ’08, either.
Ravens
The Ravens may have the best chance of any team on this list to prove me wrong, but they simply don’t possess the firepower to keep up with the explosive Browns, who have become the favorite to win the AFC North and perhaps even contend for the conference crown coming off a stunning 10-6 campaign. Even if Baltimore’s veteran-laden defense returns to form and the running game is bolstered by the addition of rookie RB Ray Rice, the squad’s main issue — finding a reliable quarterback — isn’t going away this year, regardless of whether it's Kyle Boller or Joe Flacco under center.
Texans
This one’s not entirely their fault. In most other divisions, the Texans would be, at the very least, in the discussion as a sleeper to finish on top, especially if QB Matt Schaub continues to develop and stays healthy. In the AFC South, however, the task is simply too tough for this up-and-coming crew. Houston has three ’07 playoff teams — the Colts, Jaguars and Titans — to compete within the division, and it didn’t make any major personnel upgrades in the offseason.
Raiders
Raiders owner Al Davis shoved as many dollars as he could into his unraveling franchise this offseason, but all the money won’t buy him happiness in ’08. In fact, he has been questioning his own moves over the past few months, according to some reports. Oakland is vastly improved on paper, but the changes won’t be enough to rocket the Silver and Black past the Chargers. Finishing ahead of the Chiefs in QB JaMarcus Russell’s first full year at the helm is a good starting point, and that’s all the Raiders will do this season.
Eagles
History is on the Eagles’ side — head coach Andy Reid has come back from his two non-winning seasons with an average of 10½ wins and playoff berths each time. While Reid may be able to work his magic a third time and nab a wild-card berth, it won’t be enough to win the loaded NFC East with the Cowboys, Giants and Redskins standing in his team's way. The Eagles didn’t do enough to surround Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook with more playmakers in the offseason and will pay the price in their bid to take over the division.
Bears
Just one full season removed from their Super Bowl appearance, the Bears would appear a prime candidate to get back on track and win the NFC North. There’s no way Chicago’s defense will be as bad as it was last season, when it came within 55 yards of setting the franchise mark for most yards allowed, but its offense has the makings of being the league’s worst. Head coach Lovie Smith is turning yet again to the erratic duo of Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton to be sound game managers, which should seal the Bears’ fate. The improved Vikings, who beat the Bears twice last season, look like the favorites in the North, now that there appears to be no room in Green Bay for Brett Favre.
Falcons
The Mike Smith era is under way, and the Falcons have begun wiping away the grime left over from a nightmarish ’07 campaign. Expectations are low for the first year of this long-term rebuilding project, and for the first time since its inception in ’02, no team will go from worst to first in the usually upside-down NFC South. This will be a learning year, as Atlanta could have as many as four or five rookies in its starting lineup and several other inexperienced starters will get their first shot at a No. 1 role, as well.
Rams
The injury bug bit hard in St. Louis last season, devastating the roster and putting head coach Scott Linehan officially on the hot seat. Even with a full year of good health, however, it will be a great challenge to knock the Seahawks, who have won the NFC West for five consecutive years, off their perch, and the Cardinals and 49ers could be on the rise, too. St. Louis will be a favorite sleeper pick for the postseason, but don’t buy into the hype. The squad could be knocked off course in a hurry — five of its first seven games are against ’07 playoff teams, including meetings with the Giants, Cowboys and Patriots.
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