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Any serious fantasy football player knows that T.J. Houshmandzadeh scored more touchdowns than Chad Johnson in each of the last two seasons. I believe knowing this is now compulsory to get a driver’s license in the state of Ohio.
Largely because of this, Houshmandzadeh (21 TDs since 2006) is likely to be drafted higher than Johnson (15 scores in that span) in most leagues. As of today, Houshmandzadeh is ranked ninth among wide receivers and 26th overall on the PFW draft board, while Johnson is slotted 10th among receivers and 28th overall.
Houshmandzadeh will be drafted as a No. 1 receiver in most formats. Johnson? He might slide more than you might expect on draft day. After all, Johnson spent the offseason trying to bully his way out of Cincinnati. It didn’t work. Then, in June, he had surgery on his right ankle. Now, Johnson is expected to be ready for training camp, and his relationship with the Bengals is said to be somewhat mended, if still in need of repair.
But drafting Johnson doesn’t come without considerable risk. This explains why he lasted until the 39th overall pick in the PFW/CBSSports.com mock draft on May 7. Twelve receivers, including Plaxico Burress, Wes Welker and Torry Holt — receivers ranked behind Johnson on our board — were drafted before Johnson. Houshmandzadeh, for the record, was selected nine picks before Johnson.
This could happen in your draft, too. And should you select Johnson in this range — around the 40th pick, perhaps as your second receiver — prepare for a string of lame jokes about your new player. You know, punch lines ending in ‘Ocho Stinko’ and the like. Someone will trot out the Houshmandzadeh stat as if you weren't aware of it already.
Either way, take it as it comes and smile. By stopping Johnson’s slide down the draft board, you may have picked up one of the steals of this draft.
At the very least, you’ve selected a player quite capable of exceeding expectations.
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Chad Johnson
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By his own admission, Johnson didn’t have his best season in 2007 — and he still managed to catch 93 passes for 1,440 yards and eight touchdowns. A 100-catch, 1,500-yard, double-digit-TD season is not out of the realm of possibility.
We can safely assume this much about Johnson: He will be far and away the Bengals’ top vertical threat. He racked up an impressive 15.5 yards per catch last season. Houshmandzadeh, so effective on shorter routes, averaged 10.2 yards.
We can also assume that Johnson will play hard. Yes, Johnson has four years left on his deal — a lifetime in pro football — but the Bengals have twice before ripped up his contract and given him a new one well before he was scheduled to hit free agency. From what we’re hearing, it’s more likely the Bengals would revisit his contract after the ’08 season than before it. And even if Cincinnati doesn’t want to give him more money, Johnson can’t go in the tank; such a move would torpedo his trade value and all but close the door on the prospect of garnering a lucrative, new deal from a team electing to trade for him.
In the realm of public perception, Chad Johnson has never been held in lower regard than he is as the Bengals prepare for this season. He has repeatedly ripped on an employer who has paid him tens of millions of dollars and has treated him with kid gloves.
These bad feelings are bound to carry over to fantasy football drafts. Drafting Chad Johnson isn’t as chic as it once was. You are not going to be praised for your acumen. Instead, your logic will be questioned.
But should Johnson’s name remain on your list of “best available players” far longer than you expected, worry not about adding him to your roster. You are not being asked to defend Johnson’s actions; you are in this to win it, and one of the ways you can do just that is by snagging a talented player at a fire-sale price.
Just ask the folks who drafted Randy Moss last summer.
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