By Trent Modglin
Dec. 27, 2006

Matchups to exploit

After watching Travis Henry run through the Bills’ woeful run defense for 135 yards last week, you should feel good about getting Ravens RB Jamal Lewis some work in Week 17.

Jay Cutler was good for some big plays against the Bengals’ last-ranked pass defense last week. Don’t be surprised to see Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and WRs Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes have a decent chance at some quality stats against Cincinnati, as well. The two receivers combined for 13 receptions and 169 yards against the stingy Ravens a week ago.

Speaking of Jay Cutler, he is the first quarterback to throw for multiple touchdowns in his first four starts. He has eight in all and has really brought the vertical passing game back to Denver. The 49ers’ secondary had some trouble containing the Cardinals’ physical WR tandem of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, so expect to see Cutler and the Broncos look the way of Javon Walker early in hopes of a mismatch. Young TE Tony Scheffler is on a roll in the red zone, as well.

With a shaky rookie at quarterback, the Rams might be able to stack the line of scrimmage against Vikings RB Chester Taylor, but it probably won’t matter, seeing that St. Louis has surrendered 168.6 yards per game on the ground over the past nine weeks.

The Giants’ Plaxico Burress should be good for a few big plays vs. a Redskins defense ranked last in the league in average gain per pass play allowed and in sacks. Add in the fact that Redskins CB Shawn Springs is out with a shoulder injury and Marc Bulger went for 388 yards (and a 15.5-yard average per completion) last week, and you see why Burress should be in your lineup.

It could be an epic day for Rams QB Marc Bulger and WRs Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. Bulger has thrown for more than 313 yards in three of the last four games and a total of nine touchdowns over that span. Now add in the fact the Vikings have allowed 273 yards or more in five of their last seven games, and you can see why Bulger & Co. should be in line for some big numbers.

The Browns have given up a whopping 598 yards rushing the last three weeks. Ron Dayne has taken over the lead role in the Texans’ running game in impressive fashion, racking up 429 yards and five touchdowns in the last month. Get Dayne some work vs. Cleveland for sure.

Matchups to avoid

For as well as Bills RB Willis McGahee and QB J.P. Losman have played at times down the stretch, it wouldn’t make a lot of sense to expect sizable numbers out of either of them against Baltimore this week. The Ravens will still be playing for home-field advantage. They have allowed only 70.8 rushing yards per game over the last five. They have registered 27 sacks in the last five games and two interceptions in four of the last five. Oh, and they’ve allowed an average of 9.5 points in the last six games.

In his six starts since returning from a severe concussion suffered in the season opener, Chiefs QB Trent Green has thrown for more than 185 yards just once. In the past three outings, he has two scores compared to four interceptions. Not good news considering the fact the Jaguars’ second-ranked defense will be visiting. Jacksonville has allowed the fourth-fewest points in the league.

They may rest a few players in the second half, but it’s worth noting the Chargers haven’t allowed more than 168 passing yards in any of the last six games. With 20 sacks in the last five games and OLB Shawne Merriman on an absolute tear since returning from suspension, it’s safe to say Cardinals QB Kurt Warner won’t have a lot of time in the pocket.

The Raiders have allowed more than 150 yards through the air just once in the last six weeks. That means starting inconsistent Jets QB Chad Pennington and WRs Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery is a questionable move.