By Matt Sohn
Aug. 6, 2008

Patriots WR Randy Moss

Fantasy football is all about matchups. If your No. 3 running back is going against a defensive front seven missing its starting middle linebacker and nose tackle, you give him the nod over your No. 2 back whose opponent hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown all season. If your defense is missing two of its own and faces an offense that has made a weekly habit of putting the scoreboard operator through a three-hour aerobics routine, you scan the waiver wire for the defensive unit primed to dispose of the Keystone Cops of NFL offenses, whichever that may be.

There are only a few players league-wide that, assuming they’re healthy, warrant an automatic start, regardless of opponent. LaDainian Tomlinson’s one. Brian Westbrook’s another. And, in 2007, Randy Moss was another.

Terms such as “dominant” and “unstoppable” are thrown around in the NFL with such frequency that their actual meaning is muddled in hyperbole. In the case of Moss, such terms barely brush the threshold between reality and embellishment. Evidenced by his 98-catch, 1,493-yard, 23-TD campaign a season ago, Moss has proven worthy of such praise. Along with the likes of Tomlinson and Westbrook, he’s one of those players who needs to be in your fantasy lineup every week, no matter the player across the line intent on slowing him down.

But this isn’t to suggest that Moss is unbridled of limiting factors. Potholes in his bid for a repeat performance are certainly there, especially regarding his motivation. A motivated Moss has no peers. It’s no stretch to call him the most talented receiver to ever play the game, and one of the most talented players overall. A disinterested Moss, however, short-arms passes, rounds off his routes and draws the ire of his coaches and teammates.

In 2007, Moss had every reason to play to his potential: He was on a championship-caliber team, had a quarterback who not only threw darts but also commanded respect, he was on a new club where he could rid himself of the negativity he brought upon himself for his miserable tenure in Oakland, and he had just a single season to prove he was worthy of a blockbuster payday in the next contract negotiations. His jaw-dropping numbers reflected all he had to play for.

After signing a $27 million deal to remain in Foxborough, the question now becomes whether being on an elite team quarterbacked by Tom Brady is enough fuel for his fire.

Regardless, it’s almost inevitable that the stratospheric stats he registered a season ago will come back toward earth. In 2007, a confluence of factors resulted in a perfect storm for Moss’ stats. In addition to the motivating factors outlined above, he was the statistical beneficiary of coach Bill Belichick’s bid to embarrass every opponent by running up the score and setting as many records as possible after the embarrassment of “Spygate.” For all those who called him a cheater and denounced the Patriots’ legitimacy atop the NFL hierarchy during his run as coach, Belichick aimed to crush those skeptics with an exclamation mark the likes of which the league had never seen. With Moss, he had the quintessential player with which to aid that cause.

But this season, no longer is setting records of paramount importance to Belichick. Now, the attention turns back to winning the Super Bowl, the most important — and only — item on their 2007 to-do list left unchecked. Subsequently, it’s doubtful we’ll see as many fade patterns to Moss on 4th-and-goal from the 1, as Belichick will be more apt to take the traditional route, be it kicking a field goal or powering it in with the running game.

Yet, the guess here is that Moss’ desire will remain high, and he’ll continue to top the WR charts — even though his numbers won’t set new standards on the all-time lists. For as much as his reputation has been sullied by on- and off-field antics, never have his problems centered around money. It’s far more important to Moss that he feel a sense of purpose and kinship to his teammates and coaches, something he has in abundance in New England. In Oakland, the fact that he never had a chance of winning kept him from dipping into his well of talent.

Keep in mind, it’s not as if his two years in the Black Hole represent some kind of career trend. They were anomalies. As a Viking from 1998-2004, he averaged an astounding 1,306 yards and 12.8 touchdowns per season. Considering Brady is better than any quarterback he worked with in Minnesota, it’s fair to assume that his 2008 stats will fall somewhere between his Minnesota numbers and his ’07 numbers with the Patriots.

In terms of his fantasy value, he’s the rare wideout who represents a solid first-round selection on draft day, possibly as high as the fifth or sixth slot. And should you be the one to snag him, you’d be wise to cross your fingers, and hope yet another scandal rocks the Patriots’ core.