Backing favorites proved the wise play in Week One, as teams laying points posted a 10-6 ATS mark. After picking three favorites last week (and connecting with all three), I'll lay the points two more times in Week Two. I also will make a case for one of the ugliest underdogs on the card. My final pick will be no surprise to anyone who has read my handicapping blog of late.

On to the picks:

Miami (+6½) at Arizona

We just don't see the Cardinals favored by 6½ points or more all that often. It has happened six times in the past 10 years.

So how have the Cardinals responded to being odds-on favorites? By failing to cover every time in that span, and even losing outright twice. 

But I will not be scared off by that statistic, however frightening it was for me to unearth. The Cardinals looked like an improving, well-balanced team in dispatching San Francisco last week. We know the passing offense is a strength, but their ability to control the clock with the running game is another asset. The defense didn't play all that well vs. the 49ers, but it did notch four sacks and force six turnovers.

Time and time again we've seen teams take big steps forward in their second season under a head coach. We might be seeing that with the Cardinals, who appear to be taking to the schemes and teaching of head coach Ken Whisenhunt and his staff.

The Dolphins are to be credited for pushing the Jets in Week One, but I think this is a tough matchup for them unless their ground game improves. The Cardinals have to sense the NFC West title can be theirs for the taking if they play like they did a week ago, and I expect a spirited, complete effort on Sunday.

Wilkening's pick: Arizona

Philadelphia (+7) at Dallas

Since 2000, the Eagles have posted an outstanding 6-2 ATS record at Dallas, and they have won and covered the last two meetings at Texas Stadium. They are one of the few teams that give QB Tony Romo a world of problems. Their win late last season was especially impressive; here was a Philadelphia team with nothing at stake pushing around playoff-bound Dallas and scoring a 10-6 win.

The 2008 Eagles look miles better than last year's club, judging from their play in the opener vs. St. Louis. The Eagles took apart the Rams in all facets of the game.

That has led some to suggest this game is for supremacy in the NFC, for all intents and purposes. And if the Eagles play like they did in Week One, this could be yet another win for them in Dallas.

But here is another situation where I will go against history. I'm just not convinced the Eagles will be able to move the ball like they did vs. the Rams. Here's a game where the lack of a No. 1 receiver might catch up with Philly. And I'm also certain the Cowboys, who beat Cleveland handily last week, are poised for a big performance on Monday night. There is no risk of a letdown, not this early in the season.

From top to bottom, the Cowboys are the more talented club. I think this will be readily apparent by game's end.  

Wilkening's pick: Dallas

N.Y. Giants (-9) at St. Louis

The Giants were favored by too few points in Week One. Now they are laying too many points, the most they have given on the road since being nine-point favorites against Philadelphia in 2005. The Rams' 35-point loss vs. the Eagles, coupled with the Giants' road prowess of late (9-1 ATS in '07, 15-5 ATS the past two seasons) likely helped the number get this high.

The Rams lost three home games by 14 points or more a season ago, and you have to wonder if they will be an even worse team in 2008. But I can't imagine they'll play as terribly as they did in the opener. And I can't quite get the image of the Giants struggling to completely put away the Redskins out of my mind. Washington had a chance to make it a one-score game late before falling 16-7. I don't know if the Rams can win this game, but they can keep it close in their home opener.

Wilkening's pick: St. Louis

San Diego at Denver (O/U 45½)

As I mentioned in the blog, the Over has cashed in 17 of Broncos QB Jay Cutler's 22 starts, including in two of his three starts vs. San Diego. The Broncos' offense was very impressive in Week One, and the Chargers posted 24 points vs. a respectable Carolina defense. The sun will be shining in Denver; expect a high-scoring affair.

Wilkening's pick: Over 45½

Last week: 4-0
Season to date: 4-0