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Dec. 3, 2008

 

 

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NFL 2008

Week Three handicapping column

By Mike Wilkening  (mwilkening@pfwmedia.com)
Sept. 18, 2008

 
 
 

It happens every year.

By Week Three, some of the preseason darlings — teams you couldn’t possibly leave out of the playoff projections in August — are 0-2, licking their wounds and looking longingly at reaching the .500 mark.

These teams pose a quandary for handicappers. Should you give teams slow out of the gate another chance, or should you play against them? Make the right call, and you will score a winner at what is likely a generous price.

Two of my picks this week involve clubs in that 0-2 hole. One I’m backing, one I’m fading.

On to all of the Week Three selections:

Houston (+4½) at Tennessee

I don’t get the sense the Titans are getting the respect they deserve for their 2-0 start. Their defense has been outstanding, and they boast difference makers at every position group. The offense is still somewhat limited, but RB Chris Johnson’s rare speed has given it a major lift. So has the ascension of backup QB Kerry Collins to the starter’s role. Collins throws a tight spiral with a conventional motion, and unlike Vince Young, he doesn’t aim short passes like he’s flinging a dart at someone’s shins.

For the Texans, it will come down to keeping QB Matt Schaub out of bad down-and-distance situations. Can they run the ball well enough to stay out of the sort of obvious passing situations that will allow the Titans to aggressively come after the Texans’ quarterback? Recall that Schaub was knocked out of both starts vs. Tennessee last season.

This Titans’ defense might be even better than last season’s edition. The same could be said for the offense, which has played a big role in Tennessee scoring at least 26 points in the past four matchups with Houston.

The Titans have the look of a club that’s about to get really good. The Texans are still trying to get there.

Wilkening’s pick: Tennessee

Cleveland (+2, O/U 38½) at Baltimore

If you had made this line three weeks ago, Cleveland would have been favored by a field goal and probably more than that. But the Browns have lost their first two games of the season, looking nothing like the club that won 10 games in 2007. And the Ravens won their opener, playing the tough defense that has defined them this decade. Baltimore is also coming off an extra few days of rest after its Week Two game at Houston was postponed because of Hurricane Ike.

So the Ravens have a few things going for them. But I am going to back the underdog Browns, who played a very good defensive game vs. rival Pittsburgh last weekend, holding that powerful offensive attack to 10 points. They are facing a much more limited and less potent offense this week. The Ravens will keep things relatively simple for rookie QB Joe Flacco and will rely heavily on the running game.

But this isn’t a fail-safe plan. Flacco is going to have to make a key throw or two and avoid mistakes. I’m not convinced he can do that just yet.

On the other hand, I do believe the Browns’ offense is significantly better than it has shown. This is, after all, an attack that keyed a sweep of the Ravens last season, racking up 60 points against this tough defense.

I don’t expect offensive fireworks on either side. Just a little efficiency from Cleveland would go a long way, really.

Wilkening’s pick: Cleveland and Under 38½

Carolina (+3½) at Minnesota

The Vikings, already two games back in an NFC North Division race that they were expected to win, are panicking, and it starts with head coach Brad Childress, who benched QB Tarvaris Jackson after only two starts. Jackson, Childress said, wasn’t being aggressive enough. He also indicated new starter Gus Frerotte would keep the job for the rest of the season.

The 37-year-old Frerotte is a better pocket passer than Jackson, but he’s not at all mobile, and he threw 10 picks in three starts last season. If he were that much better than Jackson, why wasn’t he starting in Week One, when Childress easily could have decided to bench Jackson — who was playing with an injured knee — without many questions?

A couple of other things that bother me about the Vikings: RB Adrian Peterson’s on the injury report with a hamstring injury, and their WR corps is hurting.

Meanwhile, the Panthers’ best player, WR Steve Smith, returns to the lineup after serving a two-game suspension for punching CB Ken Lucas. Two points about this: In Smith’s only extended action of the preseason, the Panthers ran the Redskins off the field. Also, if Smith doesn’t have a productive game in his return — and if his teammates don’t rally around him — I’d be very surprised.

At the least, the Panthers should keep this close, and an outright win would not be a shock. Don’t these clubs look like they are going in opposite directions?

Wilkening’s pick: Carolina

Last week: 2-2
Overall: 6-2

 
   






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