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The good thing about picking these games is that the losses all count the same.
I guess this is a roundabout way of saying I won't be making another case for the Lions to cover this week. The shame still hasn't worn off.
If you've ever been to a Las Vegas sports book, you know there's a big, bright odds board with a three- or four-digit number next to each of the teams. You don't read off the name of the team you are betting; you read off that number, and the teller punches it in.
After last week, I am convinced this is strictly to prevent Lions backers from saying their team's name … realizing the ramifications of what they were doing … and deciding their money might be better off stuffed in the mattress.
But enough about last week. What about this week? Am I done backing winless teams?
See for yourself:
I picked against Houston last week and escaped only because Texans QB Sage Rosenfels completely came apart in the last four minutes against the Colts. But throw out that horrible ending, and … well, before we get to that point, we have to ask this question: Can the Texans get over what happened to them last week?
This is a tricky question. I don't know if it's necessarily a plus that the Texans are playing another home game. Houston was 6-2 at Reliant Stadium last season, but Texans fans have seen quite a few tough-to-take losses in that building in the club's seven-year history nonetheless. If the Texans start slowly on Sunday, the crowd could get restless.
But my gut tells me the Texans will respond well to this challenge. They were oh-so-close to beating Jacksonville and had Indianapolis all but finished. Their run defense and pass rush were much improved last week.
If they play vs. the Dolphins like they did in the second, third and (much of) the fourth quarter vs. the Colts, they will win, and perhaps convincingly. The Dolphins are to be respected after back-to-back wins vs. New England and San Diego, but my sense is the Texans won't be denied the winner's circle this time.
Wilkening's pick: Houston
Chicago (-2½, O/U 43½) at Atlanta
I thought the Falcons would be sneaky-good … by December. Now it's October, they're 3-2, and gone are the days of anyone looking past them. Give the Falcons a weak defense to tee off on and they will do it; witness their work vs. the Lions, Chiefs and the injury-riddled Packers.
But here come the Bears, who are playing tough run defense again after having so many problems in this area last season. Only the Ravens, Steelers and Vikings are allowing fewer rushing yards per game. However, opponents are running for almost a yard more per carry vs. Chicago (3.7 ypc) than Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Minnesota.
What does this all mean? I think it means the Falcons will have some success running the ball, perhaps a little more than 100 yards on 25 carries or so. They will be able to run some clock. But so will the Bears' offense, which is racking up 332.2 yards per game and holding the ball for a little more than 33 minutes on average. I see Chicago's defense making a few more stops than Atlanta's and scoring the victory, but I don't see a high-scoring affair developing.
Wilkening's pick: Chicago and Under 43½
N.Y. Giants (-8) at Cleveland
The Browns are getting healthy, and they played their best game of the season — a gutsy 20-12 win at Cincinnati — right before their bye. Late in that game, they finally started to look somewhat like the team so many picked to win the AFC North, and with an extra week of rest, I expect a strong effort on Monday night. The Giants should be favored by this much; certainly there is a chance Cleveland comes out flat and gets steamrolled. But I don't see that happening.
Wilkening's pick: Cleveland
Last week: 2-1-1
Season to date: 12-7-1
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