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There are many reasons to bet on a team to win the Super Bowl in July. You may be a fan of the club. You might have caught the scent of tremendous wagering value. (“The Falcons at 125-1? Put me down for five dollars!”)
But the overriding principle behind any Super Bowl bet is the ability to visualize that club winning the title, to envision a set of circumstances that would allow that club to be the last one standing in February.
Which brings us to the case of the Tennessee Titans. At present, they are listed at 45-1 at the MGM Mirage family of sports books to win Super Bowl XLIII. If that sounds enticing to you, the Mirage bookmakers will be happy to take your money, because the Titans, who opened at 30-1 on the line, haven’t exactly caught the public’s imagination.
Yes, it’s hard to make a case for the Titans to win the Super Bowl. But it’s not impossible. And just look at some of the other teams with lower odds than Tennessee, which went 10-6 last season. The Jets, coming off a six-win campaign, are 20-1 after opening at 75-1. The Ravens, who haven’t picked out a starting quarterback, are 30-1; they opened 125-1. The Raiders, who haven’t made the playoffs since 2002, are 35-1 after opening at 125-1.
The point is, if those teams are worth plunking down a few bucks, what is it about the Titans that prevents people from daring to dream?
Maybe it’s the might of the AFC South. The Colts are formidable. The Jaguars won 11 games last season. Even the last-place Texans have plenty of redeeming qualities.
Or maybe it’s just that the Titans are strong and silent and … boring. Even more so than Houston, which is 40-1 at the Mirage. Yes, the Texans, who have beaten the Titans all of twice in their history and are 1-11 all-time vs. Indianapolis, are more compelling than Tennessee. The bettors are saying as much with their wallets. The Texans have Matt Schaub-to-Andre Johnson, Mario Williams charging off the edge. The Titans have a dink-and-dunk offense, and their best defensive player is a defensive tackle, Albert Haynesworth. Exciting that isn’t.
But is it a formula to return to the playoffs for a second consecutive season? It very well could be.
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Albert Haynesworth (left)
and Vince Young
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It starts with Haynesworth, the NFL’s best interior lineman in 2007. He’s a massive, penetrating space-eater who singlehandedly changes the way teams have to play Tennessee. Case in point: When he missed three games with a hamstring injury last season, the Titans surrendered 160 rushing yards per game; when he was in the lineup, they only allowed 84.5 yards on the ground. His motivation, which has often been questioned, won’t be an issue this season: He’s playing on a one-year contract as the Titans’ franchise player.
Haynesworth and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch make up as strong a right side of any defensive line in the game, and their presence should make life easier on DLT Tony Brown and DLE Jevon Kearse, who’s trying to jump-start his career after struggling in Philadelphia. A return to Jim Schwartz’s defense and a reunion with DL coach Jim Washburn gives him a chance to be productive.
The line may be the strength of the defense, but the LB corps, led by OLBs Keith Bulluck and David Thornton, is also strong. The secondary is filled with steady, sound players and features a potential star in second-year FS Michael Griffin.
So there aren’t many concerns about the defense. The same can’t be said for the offense, which is probably the reason the Titans aren’t getting any respect. QB Vince Young threw only nine touchdown passes last season and wasn’t the rushing threat he had been as a rookie.
But let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and assume that (1) he’s healthier than he was last season, when a nagging quadriceps injury was a factor for much of the campaign and (2) at 25, he’s not done improving as a passer. Think back to the way he jolted the Titans’ offense two years ago as a rookie and brought the team to the brink of the playoffs. I have, and I am struggling for reasons to believe he won’t have a better season than he did in 2007.
If that happens, you feel better about the offense, don’t you? You’re willing to accept that RB LenDale White doesn’t have an extra gear, that the WR corps is going to struggle to get separation against top defensive competition. And if you’re an optimist — and know what offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger, who has returned for a second stint with the club, did for the Titans’ attack in Steve McNair’s heyday — you may just start to believe that this offense might present a tougher matchup than widely expected.
We’ll learn early how competitive the Titans will be in the AFC South. They host Jacksonville in Week One and Houston in Week Three. If they win those games, they could get off to a strong start much like they did last season.
The schedule is kind to the Titans. Their first four road games (at Cincinnati, Baltimore, Kansas City and Chicago) are far from imposing. Also, the Titans play only six games against teams that made the postseason in 2007.
Of course, two of those are against Indianapolis, and two are against Jacksonville. Yes, that tough AFC South. There’s no getting around it for Tennessee.
But there’s also no reason you can’t look at the Titans and see them playing in January once again. And if you close your eyes and see Jeff Fisher holding the Lombardi Trophy in February, fear not. A band of men in white lab coats is not going to come and take you away.
It just means you really, really like good run defense.
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