|
1. Oakland — QB JaMarcus Russell, LSU
|
|
Al Davis just made a costly mistake. He may have won in the past with some renegades at quarterback, but what is different in today’s game is the huge amount of money involved. Players today receive way too much before ever taking a snap for a team to take such a big gamble on greatness like Russell. It is a very, very risky pick. Russell has all the physical ability in the world, but I do not think he will ever reach his potential. I don't think Russell will be able to handle all of the trappings of success. I do not think he has the intangibles and intelligence to become a good NFL quarterback. He is too slow and heavy-footed and will have a difficult time escaping the rush at 265-plus pounds. He may have an even more difficult time controlling his weight. The coaching staff places a high premium on character and was making a push for Calvin Johnson. Davis forced Russell on his young coach. It’s not the way to start out a healthy marriage. Without question, this decision will set back the Raiders’ franchise and may doom Lane Kiffin’s tenure as head coach. Expect the Raiders to still acquire a veteran quarterback before the season begins because Russell will not be ready from Day One. At his best, I think he will have a career like Daunte Culpepper's and might have a few good years if the coaches can keep the game plan simple. At his worst, he could be the next Ryan Leaf. With a young coaching staff, Davis made a poor decision.
|
| 2. Detroit — WR Calvin Johnson, Georgia Tech |
| Johnson is the safest pick in the draft, and I expect the Raiders will regret passing on him in the very near future. Give Lions GM Matt Millen a lot of credit. He drafted three receivers in the last four years, including two (Charles Rogers and Mike Williams) who have proven to be very bad decisions, but he was firm enough in his conviction not to fold against public sentiment or fear what fans might think. He made the right decision. Johnson could pair with Roy Williams to give the Lions the best receiving corps in the league in no time. Mike Martz has a plan for Johnson if they keep him, and his combination of size, speed, hands and body control could create big-time mismatches against opponents. A great value pick, Johnson, by his presence, could wind up bringing a flurry of additional talent to the roster for a team in great need of more of it. |
| 3. Cleveland — OT Joe Thomas, Wisconsin |
| Despite the strong recommendations of Charlie Weis to his former Patriots colleague Romeo Crennel, the decision was made on Friday to side with value over need, which the Browns clearly have at quarterback with Charlie Frye struggling to grasp the offense. In Joe Thomas, the Browns get a technique-sound, naturally athletic left tackle who will instantly step into the starting lineup and start from Day One. The Browns overpaid for Kevin Shaffer a year ago in free agency, and he struggled to protect Charlie Frye’s blind side. Thomas will be much better, but in a black-and-blue division known for its strong brand of smash-mouth football, Thomas could struggle to handle the power of big, physical Pittsburgh and Baltimore defensive fronts. Expect the Browns to now target a quarterback in the coming rounds. |
| 4. Tampa Bay — DE Gaines Adams, Clemson |
| With Simeon Rice aging and the Buccaneers’ defensive line struggling to bring pressure with their front four last year, defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin had to stack the box and consistently bring the dogs to create pressure and stop the run. To make the Tampa-2 defense go, the front four must create pressure on its own. Adams can be groomed to replace Rice, but this pick suggests to me that a trade is still brewing and will likely be agreed upon in the next hour. Jon Gruden has not spent a first-round pick on a defensive player since he arrived in Tampa and knows there is a higher premium on offensive playmakers. This pick was made, to me, as a contingency to facilitate a trade with Detroit, the same way the Chargers and Giants did in 2004 with Eli Manning and Philip Rivers. |
| 5. Arizona — OT Levi Brown, Penn State |
| Levi Brown is a mauler who perfectly fits OL coach Russ Grimm’s style of play. He is a big, physical, dominating mauler who could re-establish the line of scrimmage and create running lanes for Edgerrin James where there were none a year ago. After letting Leonard Davis walk in free agency, the Cardinals needed to replace him, and Brown could step in at right tackle and protect Matt Leinart’s blind side. Brown’s footwork and technique need a lot of massaging, but with Grimm in Arizona, expect Brown to make huge strides in a short amount of time. Although this pick might seem rich for the slot right now as Jammal Brown did two years ago when the Saints selected him 13th overall, I expect Brown will be competing for a spot in the Pro Bowl in a relatively short time. Grimm is one of the best offensive line coaches in the league, if not the best, and he has all the clay he needs in Brown to mold him into an elite talent. |
| 6. Washington — FS LaRon Landry, LSU |
| The Redskins made Adam Archuleta the league’s highest-paid safety in the league last year, and he failed to produce the results they desired. They dealt him to Chicago following the season and still had a pressing need in the secondary. Dan Snyder will once again have the highest-paid safety tandem in the league, and Landry should upgrade both the run defense and pass "D." He is a tackling machine who does not have great downfield ball skills, but he has rare speed to compensate for it. He is rarely out of position, plays very disciplined and does not miss many tackles. Together with Taylor, the Redskins will have two very physical intimidators roaming the back end. The biggest question with Landry is whether he will be able to keep his ego in check and treat his teammates and coaches with respect after he develops into a Pro Bowl player, which he has a very good chance of doing. |
| 7. Minnesota — RB Adrian Peterson, Oklahoma |
| Minnesota has had a tendency to reach for their biggest need, and they could have used more depth in the backfield, but this was clearly a value pick, and an outstanding one at that. If Peterson stays healthy as a rookie, I expect he will not only make more of an impact than any other rookie in the league, he could carry the Vikings to the playoffs and even challenge to knock the Bears off their perch. Peterson is fiercely competitive and will impose his will on anyone who tries to get in his way. He is big, strong, fast, physical and as talented as any runner I’ve ever seen. The Bears, Packers and Lions cannot like this pick. Having to stop Peterson twice a year will prove to be a tremendous challenge. Barring injury — and it no doubt is a concern given how violent Peterson runs — he will someday be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. From a talent perspective, he is as much of a can't-miss prospect as there is in this draft. |
| 8. Atlanta (from Houston) — DE Jamaal Anderson, Arkansas |
|
One of Bobby Petrino’s top priorities upon arriving in Atlanta was getting bigger up front on both sides of the ball. The Falcons had a big need to fill at defensive end after losing Patrick Kerney, and they not only filled it, but got much bigger with the 285-pound Anderson. Having converted from receiver early in his career, he is still growing into his body and is loaded with upside. However, he is not a naturally big-boned or strong run defender, and he still has a ways to go. Whether he can play every down and stay healthy at a manufactured weight are concerns.
|
| 9. Miami — WR Ted Ginn Jr., Ohio State |
| The Dolphins made a big mistake by passing on Brady Quinn. This was the first surprise of the draft, but not a shocker given GM Randy Mueller's infatuation with speed. Many teams had graded Anthony Gonzalez more highly than Ted Ginn Jr. as a receiver. Ginn is not a polished receiver, but he does bring tremendous value as a returner and he has the solid character around which Mueller and Cam Cameron want to build. I do not think Ginn Jr. will be able to stay healthy in the pro game at 177 pounds, and with Marty Booker being offered on the trade market, this was clearly a need pick at a position that traditionally tends to bust in the first round. This decision has classic boom-or-bust potential, and I think the Dolphins will live to regret it. |
| 10. Houston (from Atlanta) — DT Amobi Okoye, Louisville |
| This decision makes a lot of sense given the premium Gary Kubiak places on the pass rush. Much like Mario Williams a year ago, Okoye enters the league with some questions about his discipline and desire. He is, however, still maturing, and his best football is three years away. With Okoye and Williams in the trenches, the Texans could make it difficult for Peyton Manning to set his feet and get in rhythm, and for the Texans to capture the division, they must be able to beat the world champion Colts. My biggest concern with Okoye is that he will not be able to stay focused and will be distracted by the fame and fortune that come with being a top-10 pick. As a player, he compares to La'Roi Glover, and if he can make the same type of impact, the Texans could quickly have one of the best defensive lines in football. |
| 11. San Francisco — LB Patrick Willis, Mississippi |
| Niners LB coach Mike Singletary fell in love with the tireless Patrick Willis at the Senior Bowl. He has rare speed for a linebacker and brings tremendous versatility in a 3-4 front. Together with Manny Lawson, Willis gives the Niners two of the fastest linebackers in the league, and they should be able to run down anything. The Niners' defense just got a lot better. Not only did they find a tremendous talent, they landed an outstanding leader who will elevate the play of his teammates. Willis is a blue-chip talent who should make himself a regular in Honolulu. |
| 12. Buffalo — RB Marshawn Lynch, California |
|
This was an owner’s decision, and like most decisions where owners get involved, a bad one, in my opinion. Lynch is talented, no doubt, but he comes from an inner-city background, much like Willis McGahee, and will struggle to fit into the culture established in Buffalo. As a player, he can do everything well — run, catch and block — and could be the most versatile back the Bills have had since Thurman Thomas.
|
| 13. St. Louis — DE-DT Adam Carriker, Nebraska |
|
Scott Linehan wants to get bigger and stronger in the trenches, and the Rams had a pressing need on the defensive line. The Rams’ coaching staff fell in love with Carriker early in the process. His versatility made him a very attractive pick. The Rams have taken some chances on low-character players in the past, but they nabbed a very solid player with this pick.
|
| 14. N.Y. Jets (from Carolina) — CB Darrelle Revis, Pittsburgh |
| With the Steelers eagerly awaiting for the local product to fall to them, the Jets wisely moved up a slot ahead to nab Revis — a physical, instinctive corner who fills the Jets' biggest need. Revis is excellent in run support and has the size and toughness that Eric Mangini desires. His return ability gave him a nod over Michigan’s Leon Hall. The Panthers, who were targeting Jamaal Anderson and saw him come off the board six picks sooner than they would have liked, benefited from the top two cornerbacks sliding. |
| 15. Pittsburgh — OLB Lawrence Timmons, Florida State |
| Timmons gives the Steelers the flexibility to line up in a 3-4 or 4-3 front, and his versatility was most attractive to the Steelers. Timmons has pass-rush ability, but he is best as a weak-side linebacker in a 4-3 front, an indicator to me that the Steelers may be looking to move from the 3-4 defense they have long run to the Tampa-2 system that head coach Mike Tomlin so successfully implemented in Minnesota in his previous stop as defensive coordinator. Timmons has a lot of upside, and if the defense is kept simple and he is allowed to be turned loose, he could excel. However, if he is asked to do too much, especially early on, he could struggle. With cornerbacks slipping and the depth of the LB class being weaker, it made sense for the Steelers to pass on Leon Hall, but the Steelers could have traded down, acquired more picks and still landed Timmons. |
| 16. Green Bay — DT Justin Harrell, Tennessee |
| Ted Thompson is a value-oriented decision-maker and almost always takes the best player on the board. He clearly followed this approach here. However, when Cullen Jenkins kicked outside to end, a void was created inside, and Harrell does also fill a position of need. Harrell is quick off the ball and shows the ability to dominate. However, durability remains an issue, and he has not shown he could stay healthy throughout his career. Harrell follows in the path of former teammate Jason Allen, whom the Dolphins drafted 16th overall after he missed most of the season with injury. |
| 17. Denver (from Jacksonville) — DE Jarvis Moss, Florida |
|
The Broncos filled their most pressing need for a pass rusher and overlooked some character concerns that pushed Moss down the draft boards of other teams. Mike Shanahan has more tenure than any coach in the NFL, however, and can make confident decisions, including going up to get his guy. He likely caught word that Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis was enamored with Moss, as he was. Yet, it would have been a difficult decision for the Bengals to make, given their recent track record of questionable character picks, and the Broncos probably could have stayed put and still landed their target. Moss will bring much-needed heat off the edge, but he needs to get bigger and stronger, and durability could be an issue, having battled through a number of injuries throughout his career.
|
| 18. Cincinnati — CB Leon Hall, Michigan |
| The Bengals filled a pressing need with a player who was a strong option at No. 7. Hall comes without character questions — a much-needed step in the right direction for the franchise — and should be able to step into the starting lineup immediately and move into the slot when needed. He timed very well at the Combine, but he did not play as fast and lacks great top-end speed. However, he is tough, instinctive and does an excellent job reading routes. He will help bolster an average pass defense. |
| 19. Tennessee — S Michael Griffin, Texas |
| The Titans, like the Bengals, needed to clean up their locker room, and in Michael Griffin, they landed an individual with very solid character. Outside of LaRon Landry, he worked out better than any elite safety in the draft. He's tough, he's instinctive and he's physical, and he brings added value on special teams, where he has a terrific knack for blocking kicks. He was asked to play very aggressively in the Longhorns' scheme and could have some struggles lining up a defense, but the game is important to him, and he will be a solid pro. With the Jaguars and Cowboys considering him, it was not as big of a reach as it might appear. |
| 20. N.Y. Giants — CB Aaron Ross, Texas |
| The Giants' CB situation was bleak with Sam Madison and R.W. McQuarters aging and Corey Webster struggling to stay healthy. Ross fills a primary position of need. Ross had a terrific senior year and adds return ability. He is big, instinctive and has good ball skills and should be able to line up with the likes of Plaxico Burress and Terrell Owens twice a year. |
| 21. Jacksonville (from Denver) — FS Reggie Nelson, Florida |
| The decision every team had to answer about Nelson was whether they could afford to use a first-round pick on a safety who could not make the coverage calls. Many said no, but in a simple scheme, like the Jaguars', Nelson could blossom. He is a true center fielder with terrific range and, if asked not to do too much, could be very good. Despite not having a great command of the defense, he is naturally instinctive, will strike and shows good ball skills. |
| 22. Cleveland (from Dallas) — QB Brady Quinn, Notre Dame |
| Phil Savage made a shrewd decision to secure Quinn, an excellent value at No. 22. Quarterbacks, more than any other position, can be adversely affected in the first round because there are only so many slots for quarterbacks to fall. It has happened each of the last three drafts, with Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Leinart all sliding further than expected. To secure a bookend left tackle and a potential franchise quarterback in the first round will have to excite Browns fans and encourage offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski. Quinn has great intangibles and will do all he can to succeed, but not all teams were convinced he was a franchise quarterback — part of the reason he slid. He will overstride, muscle some balls and not always throw with great accuracy, but he is very smart, makes good decisions and should adapt quickly to the NFL game. |
| 23. Kansas City — WR Dwayne Bowe, LSU |
|
A big, physical West Coast receiver, Bowe fills one of the Chiefs' most pressing needs and should open up the passing game for Damon Huard if Trent Green is traded, as it appears he still may be, to the Dolphins or released. Bowe lined up at every WR position and can line up inside or outside and create mismatch propblems with his size and physical play. He can be a factor in the red zone and is a great blocker who could also help the running game.
|
| 24. New England (from Seattle) — FS Brandon Meriweather, Miami (Fla.) |
|
The Patriots were thin on the back end with Rodney Harrison and Eugene Wilson both coming off injuries. His character could be called into question because of several off-the-field incidents, and Meriweather is a little rough around the edges, but Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli have enough strength of character on their football team and in the locker room that they can feel comfortable that the veteran leadership will keep Meriweather in line. Meriweather's versatility, with the ability to line up at cornerback or safety, is very attractive.
|
| 25. Carolina (from N.Y. Jets) — LB Jon Beason, Miami (Fla.) |
| The Panthers made a great decision to trade down and acquire additional value while still filling a pressing need with the selection of Beason — an underrated talent who could step into the starting lineup from Day One and play any of the three LB positions. Head coach John Fox values football smarts and versatility, and he found both in Beason. With Dan Morgan struggling to finish a season healthy and Na'il Diggs manning the weak side, Beason could be plugged in at Will or shift inside if Morgan gets hurt. He greatly improves the Panthers' depth. |
| 26. Dallas (from Philadelphia) — OLB Anthony Spencer, Purdue |
| Spencer could make the secondary a lot better by bringing more pressure off the edge. He made huge strides from his junior to senior season and regularly beat up on every tackle he matched up against. He is athletic enough to stand up and drop into coverage if needed, but he is at his best when he has his hand on the ground and is getting after the quarterback. |
| 27. New Orleans — WR Robert Meachem, Tennessee |
| With Joe Horn departing, the Saints had a clear need at receiver. Meachem is a natural athlete with great downfield ball skills and will go up to attack the ball in the air and take it away from defenders. His size and strength will be assets in a conference that likes to play a lot of physical press covearge. Marques Colston had a terrific rookie season, but if teams are allowed to focus on him, he could easily be contained. Meachem will take some pressure off Colston and add another downfield threat. |
| 28. San Francisco (from New England) — OT Joe Staley, Central Michigan |
| With Joe Thomas and Levi Brown off the board in the top five, the Niners made a run for the draft's third-best tackle, making the trade of Kwame Harris a more distinct possibility. The Niners coached Staley at the Senior Bowl, as they did Willis, and clearly benefited from their exposure to players there. A trade was necessitated because Staley was under strong consideration by Baltimore. Staley, an ex-tight end, is a manufactured 300-pounder who could struggle to carry his weight and stay healthy. He does not play with much power and can be controlled and steered by bigger defensive linemen, but he is very athletic, with good feet, and could be a solid bookend. |
| 29. Baltimore — OG Ben Grubbs, Auburn |
| The Ravens landed the draft's top guard prospect and a future Pro Bowl-type player, filling a strong need but also getting good value with the pick. With the Ravens being a strong postseason contender, Grubbs could be the missing ingredient to get the ground game going and has the quickness and strength to get into blocks quickly and clear running lanes for Willis McGahee. He should be penciled in as an immediate starter and set a new tempo on the offensive line. With what guards have been getting paid in the offseason, drafting one in the first round is no longer considered a reach. |
| 30. San Diego — WR Craig Davis, LSU |
| A surprise first-round selection, Davis is an underrated talent with outstanding speed and run-after-the-catch ability. One team regarded Davis as the second-best receiver in the draft, so it's not truly a surprise the Chargers selected him here. He is not the most consistent catcher, but his combination of size and speed definitely warranted first-round consideration, and he could stretch the field and open up the short passing game for Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson. |
| 31. Chicago — TE Greg Olsen, Miami (Fla.) |
| The Bears did not have an explosive up-the-seam threat at the TE position, and the addition of Olsen could give Rex Grossman a big-play threat. He is too high-hipped and thin-hipped to ever be a great blocker, but he is strong enough to get in the way, and he still has some room to grow in that area after exiting school early as a junior. |
| 32. Indianapolis — WR Anthony Gonzalez, Ohio State |
| Bill Polian loves Big Ten talent and seeks high-character players, and Gonzalez is a perfect fit for the Colts' rhythm passing game. He runs very clean routes, has reliable hands and has the run-after-the-catch ability to make the Colts forget about losing Brandon Stokley. |
